Commercial dynamics of mexican tomato in the framework of the USMCA: an analysis of trade with the united states using the gravity model

Resumen

Objective: Within the framework of the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA), the objective of this study is to provide a description through econometric methods of the variables that influence tomato trade, in addition to describing the commercial dynamics of the sector in both Mexico and the United States.

Design / Methodology / Approach: A gravity model was applied to investigate and evaluate the role of some of the main economic and geographic variables as determinants of Mexican trade flows.

Results: The results show that the most important variables are the US gross national income per capita (GNI_PC), as well as the US per capita production and consumption volumes calculated from apparent national consumption (ANC). It was also found that the variable GNI_PC is better to determine the model than the gross domestic product per capita (GDP_PC), due to the qualities of the variables.

Limitations / Implications: Statistical records for the period 1994 to 2020 were taken into account, considering all varieties of tomato produced and exported.

Findings / Conclusions: Regarding income, the variable with the best fit in the model was in GNI_PC, which was adopted in the World Bank’s current way of classifying countries by income, variables such as consumption and production behaved in a typical way increasing and decreasing the volume traded. Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) is one of the most competitive and profitable agricultural products in Mexico.