COMMERCIAL DYNAMICS OF THE MEXICAN TOMATO IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE USMCA, AN ANALYSIS OF TRADE WITH THE UNITED STATES USING THE GRAVITY MODEL.

Abstract

Objective: Within the framework of the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA), the objective of this document is to provide a description through econometric methods of the variables that influence the tomato trade, in addition to describing the dynamics commercial sector in both Mexico and the United States.

Design / methodology / approach: A gravity model was applied to investigate and evaluate the role of some of the main economic and geographic variables as determinants of Mexican trade flows.

Results: The results show that the most important variables are the US gross national income per capita (GNI_PC), as well as US per capita production and consumption volumes calculated from apparent national consumption (ANC); It was also determined that the variable GNI_PC is better to determine the model than the gross domestic product per capita (GDP_PC), due to the qualities of the variables.

Limitations / Implications: Statistical records for the period 1994 to 2020 were considered; considering all varieties of tomato produced and exported.

Findings / conclusions: Regarding income, the variable with the best fit in the model was in GNI_PC, which was adopted in the current way to classify countries by World Bank income, variables such as consumption and production behaved in a typical way increasing and decreasing the volume traded; the tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) is one of the most competitive and profitable agricultural products in Mexico.