Analysis of meteorological drought in the Rodrigo Gómez Dam basin
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Keywords
water security, water management, meteorological phenomenon, water stress, precipitation forecast.
Resumen
Objective: To identify the return periods of meteorological drought in the Rodrigo Gómez "La Boca" Dam basin, located in the state of Nuevo León.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Based on the Streak, Foley, and moving-average methods, a probabilistic approach was applied to annual rainfall data (1973-2015) from five climatological stations located within the Rodrigo Gómez Dam basin to forecast drought recurrence. Years in which at least two methods identified drought conditions were considered drought years for the purpose of calculating return periods.
Results: A meteorological drought is highly probable with a return period of 3 to 5 years.
Study Limitations /Implications: For the drought analysis, climatological stations with at least 30 years of rainfall records were required. The study area was reduced during the data collection, as two stations within the Rodrigo Gómez Dam area were excluded given their insufficient precipitation data.
Findings/Conclusions: This research confirmed the existence and persistence of drought-related problems at the dam. The results indicate a high probability of a meteorological drought with a return period of 3 to 5 years. This recurrence reinforces the need for a Drought Action and Prevention Plan in the state of Nuevo León, aimed at ensuring the sustainable management of water resources and minimizing impacts on the population.