DISTRIBUTION OF Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham. UNDER SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NEOVOLCANIC AXIS, MEXICO

Abstract

The sacred fir (Abies religiosa) is a species of high mountain temperate climate, found in the central states of México. The species serves as shelter for the monarch butterfly, which travels from the United States and Canada, and therefore has ecological importance. The current potential distribution of the sacred fir forests was determined, as well as under scenarios of climate change (CC), in the Transversal Neovolcanic Axis. The distribution models were obtained by applying the GARP algorithm in combination with climate, topographic, vegetation, soil coverages, and points of presence of the species. According to the results, the current potential distribution area of the sacred fir is concentrated mostly in the states of Estado de México, Morelos, Michoacán, Querétaro, Ciudad de México and Puebla with 5,190,902 ha. The possible distribution under scenarios of CC RCP4.5 for the year 2039 would be 8,060,023.10 ha, essentially in Hidalgo, Estado de México, Morelos, Michoacán, Querétaro and Ciudad de México. The results suggest a potential increase in the species distribution under the current scenarios and with CC.