Current and potential demand of fertilizers in Mexico

Abstract

Objective: To diagnose the market situation of fertilizers through the statistical analysis of the main market variables, considering the importance of fertilizers as a strategic input for increasing productivity in the agricultural sector.

Methodology: The growth of the apparent domestic consumption of fertilizers for the 2007-2020 period, the variables that determine it, and the current and potential demand per state in 2019 were estimated.

Results: During the period under analysis, fertilizer consumption grew at an annual rate of 4.8 %, reaching 6.3 million tons in 2020. Almost 75 % of consumption was supplied by imports and only 25 % was supplied by domestic production. If 100 % of the sown area was fertilized, the potential demand for fertilizers would exceed 8 million tons.

Implications: The country's heavy dependence on fertilizer imports means that the Mexican agricultural sector is vulnerable to a potential increase in fertilizer prices, as a result of the crisis that the global agrochemicals market is currently facing.

Conclusions: Given Mexico's dependence on fertilizer imports, the domestic industry must be strengthened, in order to increase production and satisfy a greater percentage of the domestic demand.