Validation of a model to estimate climate effects on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in a hydrological basin

Abstract

Objective. To validate a simulation model which enables the estimation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production, based on climatic variables in the lower Mayo River basin in Sonora, Mexico.

Design/methodology/ approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Crop Yield simulation model was used to estimate productive wheat yields. The model was fed with climatic data for the 1979-2014 period, provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Subsequently, the results were validated using the Nash-Sutcliffe, PBIAS, and R² statistics. The predictive capacity of the model was validated in four of the six Hydrological Response Units with agricultural land in the study area: 26, 27, 28, and 31.

Study limitations/implications. The model does not include adaptation measures and future production scenarios based on climate data estimation must be developed.

Findings/conclusions. The influence of climate change on wheat production has been confirmed; the predictive model used is an important tool that can be adjusted and adapted to other regions and production systems.