MODELING THE CURRENT AND FUTURE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green, 1908) A PLAGUE IMPORTANCE FOR MÉXICO

Abstract

Objective: to model the current and future potential distribution of Maconellicoccus hirsutus in order to identify changes in its distribution in Mexican Republic.

Design / methodology / approach: 2,154 occurrence points were used, MaxEnt was used with the help of the Kuenm package implemented in Rstudio to select a final model. Which was projected throughout Mexico, six possible climate change scenarios with a proposed threshold (0.02).

Results: a potential present surface of 1, 159,335.5 km² was found, corresponding to 59% of the territorial surface, indicating a greater suitability in coastal areas including the gulf of Mexico, the entire Pacific slope and Yucatan peninsula. In all scenarios shows an increase in the potential area up to 1,423,890.18 km² in 2050 and 1,537,591.19 km² in 2070.

Limitations of the study / implications: the predictions at 2050 and 2070 projections will depend on the climatic conditions that are presented at the time, so specific studies in each region should be carried out. Considering that the species may have adaptability to new climates which would imply constant monitoring. If an increase is observed in the distribution areas, the species could not only affect only agricultural areas but also forest ecosystems.

Findings / conclusions: the projections made for scenarios 2050 and 2070 show an increase in the area of infestation and environmental suitability for pink cochineal, mainly in the states of the Pacific, Yucatan peninsula and the gulf of Mexico slopes, these areas being the most vulnerable.