IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON Impact of climatic change on the adaptation of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) crops in Tabasco, Mexico

Abstract

Objective: To define the actual best potential areas for growing coffee in Tabasco state and its expected potential yields. Also, define its new distribution in the year 2050 under a climatic change scenario, as well as the impact of this scenario on the future potential yields.

Design/methodology/approach: The FAO AgroEcological Zoning (AEZ) methodology was used to define the best areas to grow coffee and to estimate their potential yield in Tabasco state under current era and on a future climate change scenario for the year 2050 (FAO, 1981). The AEZ performed for the 2050 year takes in account a 1.6°C increment in the mean daily temperature for the selected climatic stations in the present study.

Results: The resulting overlapping map of soil and climate most suitable potential areas shows that in Tabasco coffee has been grown in not optimal agro ecological conditions. Actually the more suitable and optimal areas for arabic type coffee in Tabasco covers a 59,400.24 ha out of the existing total 2,034,227.52 ha.

Limitations of study/implications: There is a large group of new coffee clones in Mexico which leaf area and harvest index are unknown, getting hard to estimate their potential yields.

Findings/conclusions: In the year 2050, under the worst climatic change scenario, the actual best potential areas to grow coffee in Tabasco will be reduced in 96.42% and their potential yields will also be reduced in 67% compared to the actual potential yields.