EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ON THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FOUR FOREST SPECIES IN THE RÍO BRAVO-SAN JUAN BASIN, COAHUILA, MEXICO

Abstract

The possible effect of climate change on the potential distribution of four forest species (Pinus arizonica Engelmen, P. cembroides Zucc, Juniperus fláccida Schlechtendal y Quercus spp.) was evaluated at the local level, in the Río Bravo-San Juan basin, Coahuila, México. Spatial modelling and statistical techniques were used for the simulation of potential future distributions. According to the results, the current potential distribution agrees with what was reported by the National Forest and Soils Inventory (Inventario Nacional Forestal y de Suelos, INFyS). In the modelling carried out for the years 2050 and 2080, an increase in the species’ distribution was found, with pines being the ones that showed greatest affectation from climate change in the study area. The results suggest important changes in the potential distribution of these species in the basin for the coming years.