Economic effects of the drought in DDR 023 San Juan del Río, Querétaro

Abstract

Objective: Analyze the impact of various levels of drought and increase in groundwater use on agricultural income in Irrigation District 023 of San Juan del Río, Qro., and determine water productivity as drought increases.

Design/methodology/approach: Linear programming was used; Four scenarios were built: a typical year with surface and groundwater, two with moderate drought levels and one, only with groundwater for irrigation. In addition to four others with the same characteristics, in addition to considering the cultivation of 60% of alfalfa to serve the dairy sector due to its importance

Results: There are reductions ranging from 8.6% to 19.1% in agricultural income for the first set of models and from 9.7% to 23.1% in income when alfalfa planting is forced. The most water-demanding crops cause a significant reduction in agricultural income. Shadow water prices range from $800 per thousand m³ to $5,819 per thousand m3 for the W-I cycle as drought increases.

Limitations on study/implications: The research included the most representative crops in the district and limited the area of ​​crops with high profitability due to market aspects.

Findings/conclusions: It is concluded that droughts significantly affect agricultural income and that the shadow price of water increases significantly as the drought increases, so groundwater should be allocated to the most productive agricultural activities and less demanding of water.