Economic Effects of Drought in Irrigation District 023 San Juan del Río, Querétaro

Resumen

Objective: To analyze the impact of various levels of drought and increase in groundwater use on agricultural income in Irrigation District 023 of San Juan del Río, Queretaro, and to determine water productivity as drought intensifies.

Design/methodology/approach: Linear programming was used; Four scenarios were built: a typical year with surface and groundwater, two with moderate drought levels and one, only with groundwater for irrigation. Additionally, four other scenarios with the same characteristics were considered, incorporating the cultivation of 60% of alfalfa to serve the dairy sector due to its importance

Results: Reductions in agricultural income range from 8.6% to 19.1% in the first set of models and from 9.7% to 23.1% when alfalfa planting is enforced. The most water-demanding crops cause a significant reduction in agricultural income. Shadow water prices range from $800 per thousand m³ to $5,819 per thousand m³ for the W-I cycle as drought intensifies.

Limitations on study/implications: The research included the most representative crops in the district and limited the area of ​​crops with high profitability due to market aspects.

Findings/conclusions: It is concluded that droughts significantly affect agricultural income and that the shadow price of water increases significantly as the drought increases, so groundwater should be allocated to the most productive and less water-demanding agricultural activities.