Evidence of niche shift in Schistocerca piceifrons and identification of potential colonization zones in Mexico in the face of climate change

Resumen

Objective: Schistocerca piceifrons piceifrons is a species that significantly impacts agriculture and threatens food security, making it essential to conduct studies that assess areas susceptible to invasion in Mexico. This study aimed to examine the climatic niche of S. piceifrons piceifrons and to identify potential invasion zones in Mexico under climate change scenarios.

Design/Methodology: A niche overlap analysis was conducted to detect variations in niche occupancy by S. piceifrons piceifrons in Costa Rica and Mexico. Additionally, a niche modeling approach was implemented to identify new areas at risk of invasion in Mexico under projected climate change conditions. Results: Findings reveal that the species exhibits variations in its climatic niche across the regions it inhabits in Mexico and Costa Rica. The niche model predicts that, for the 2021–2040 period, suitable habitat availability for S. piceifrons piceifrons will expand, particularly in the tropical dry forest and tropical moist forest ecoregions. Implications: Exploring climatic niche variation in S. piceifrons piceifrons provides valuable insights into its invasive potential. Niche modeling further enables the identification of high-risk zones for future invasions in Mexico. Conclusions: This study contributes to assessing the invasion potential of S. piceifrons piceifrons and identifying new areas at risk of colonization. These findings serve as a strategic tool for guiding decision-making and prioritizing control measures against one of the most significant agricultural pests in Mexico and Central America.