Variations of the agroecological potential of Moringa oleifera Lam., in the presence of climate change scenarios in Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract

Objective: This research aimed to identify the area variations with agroecological potential for Moringa oleifera Lam. cultivation (Moringa), derived from the effects of climate change at the near horizon of 2039 in the State of Veracruz, Mexico.
Methodology: The current climatic agroecological potential layers for the state of Veracruz were used, and a general circulation model (MGC) HADGEM2-ES for the RCP8.5 scenario projected to the near future 2039, with five categories: Very High, High, Medium, Low and Very, Low potential.
Results: An area with a Very High category of 1,057,415 hectares (ha) was identified, which, corresponds to an expansion of 4.9% with respect to the current size. determining that climate change favors the cultivation of Moringa in three sizes of the State. The most significant variation with an increase in the Very high category (115.58%) was identified in the south of the Veracruz state, followed by the central size (110.17%). The greatest decrease (-4.53%) occurred in the north of the entity.
Limitations on study: Only the regions with Very High potential were identified without considering those with High, Medium, Low, and Very Low agroecological potential.
Conclusions: The projections under climate change conditions to the horizon of 2039 highlight the expansion of regions with Very High potential in 19% of the Veracruz territory for the cultivation of the species.